Winter GDP Comes In Hot

GBTC's Outflow Slowdown

Author

Nathaniel Whittemore
January 26, 2024

The Breakdown First Five - Friday, January 26, 2024

Welcome back to The Breakdown First Five — the 5 most interesting and/or important stories in bitcoin, crypto, and markets to start your day.

Winter GDP Comes In Hot

5. Swan Mining Emerges from Stealth

Swan Bitcoin have unveiled their latest division, Swan Mining. The mining subsidiary has already built out 4.75 exahases of mining power, around 1% of the network, and mined 750 Bitcoin across 7 global locations. Another 3 facilities are in the works along with a 44% boost in mining power by the halving. This explains the mysterious 9 figures in capital raised by Swan last year for undisclosed investments. Swan also aims to go public via IPO this year. 

4. Deutsche: Everyone Hates Bitcoin

A new survey of average retail investors by Deutshce bank showed that most people think Bitcoin is destined for the dustbin. 2000 investors were surveyed across the US and Europe, with two-thirds saying they have little or no understanding of crypto. 42% of these respondents think that Bitcoin won’t exist in a few years, while only 20% thought the price would improve this year. One-third thought the price would be cut in half. In a halving year. We’re so early. 

3. Government Selling Bitcoin

The US government has announced the sale of $118M worth of Bitcoin seized from a silk road drug dealer in 2021. Six figure government sales used to spook the market, but after dealing with GBTC selling four times as much daily it feels insignificant. The government still has a stash of $7.7B in Bitcoin across three much larger seizures. Maybe they should hold onto little, in case it catches on?

2. GBTC Outflows Continue Slowing

GBTC outflows slowed for the third day in a row, with $394M redeemed on Thursday. Maybe we’re past the bulk of the selling, but the new ETFs are struggling to keep up. Wednesday ended up seeing $158M in net outflows, the largest day of outflows since the products launched. A note from JP Morgan analysts said the big sellers are already done. Crypto twitter is still watching flows intently. 

1. Winter GDP Comes In Hot

Preliminary estimates of Q4 GDP showed 3.3% annualized growth, rounding out the year with 2.5% real growth. That’s well above 2% estimates for quarterly growth and vastly exceeded the base case that 2023 would be recessionary. Strong consumer spending, inventory buildout and a huge amount of government spending kept the US economy surging for the quarter. 

Thanks for reading -NLW