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The SEC Gets Reprimanded By the GAO
Plus SBF testimony is complete
The Breakdown First Five - Wednesday November 1, 2023
Welcome back to The Breakdown First Five — the 5 most interesting and/or important stories in bitcoin, crypto, and markets to start your day.
Happy November
5. FOMC Meeting
Happy Fed Day to those who celebrate. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady but all eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments. Will he declare the hiking cycle to be over or continue to project a hawkish pause. Markets have no hike fully priced in and are expecting the same decision next month, contradicting Fed forecasts of one hike before the year is out. Earlier this month Powell said inflation is still too high, but what will he do about it?
The Fed’s pause is not a data driven decision, it’s a risk averse preference.
If the Fed decided on the actual data below, further hikes wouldn’t be a close call, even at today’s 5.5% rates:
- 8% gdp growth
- 5% real growth
- 3.8% UE rate
- 5% wage growth
- 4% core inflation— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited)
12:04 AM • Nov 1, 2023
4. Uptober for the CME.
Open interest is surging on the CME and looks set to overtake Binance as the primary Bitcoin futures trading venue within months. OI spiked over the recent weeks fueled by speculation on impending ETF launches. Binance currently processes around 25% of nominal Bitcoin futures OI. The CME has already overtaken OKX and Bybit and is closing in with 22.5% of trading. The gap is now around $300M, a 10% increase from current OI.
CME is about to flip Binance as the largest exchange with respect to Bitcoin futures open interest. Institutions are here... and it's just getting started. The physical markets will catch up.
— Gabor Gurbacs (@gaborgurbacs)
4:58 PM • Oct 30, 2023
3. Circle Closes Consumer Accounts
Circle has shut down consumer level USDC minting accounts. The firm claimed this is the latest step in a long process of moving away from servicing individuals. Accounts with zero balance will be sunset at the end of the month. Conspiracies abound, ranging from solvency concerns to wanting to stem outflows. CEO Jeremy Allaire put the rumors to bed, noting that trusted partners can still handle safe retail access to stablecoins.
Lots of noise about @circle limiting individuals from using Circle Mint. There is nothing new here. We haven't allowed individuals to open Circle accounts in years, and have been institution only for years as well. We have tremendous retail partners all around the world,… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
— Jeremy Allaire (@jerallaire)
6:55 PM • Oct 31, 2023
2. SBF Testimony Over
Sam Bankman-Fried has uttered the last words in his defense and his fate will soon be in the hands of the jury. His cross examination continued as it began, evasive and complex. The DOJ cut through the waffle and presented simple facts which they hope will prove his guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. To the end of his testimony, Sam denied spending customer funds, noting that “money is fungible anyway.” Closing statements are scheduled today.
The defense rests! And the government will not put on a rebuttal case after all. (Tracy Wang surmised it’s bc the government has this case in the bag.) Danielle Sassoon’s cross of SBF ended with a mic drop, plus there were strings of questions by her that made people laugh
— Laura Shin (@laurashin)
4:56 PM • Oct 31, 2023
1. SEC Guidance Illegal
The Government Accountability Office has slapped down SEC staff accounting bulletin 121. SAB 121 required firms to hold custodied crypto on their own balance sheet, making banks unable to offer custody services and customers less safe. The GAO said that the bulletin had sidestepped proper rulemaking procedure and needed to be sent to Congress for review. McHenry and Lummis plan to block the rule in due course.
HUGE in all caps.
One of the means by which the SEC has tried to unfairly strap crypto.
SAB 121 not only was illegally published as guidance, not subject to notice and comment, but it makes no sense and has seriously harmed market participants.
— Marisa Tashman Coppel (@MTCoppel)
5:57 PM • Oct 31, 2023
Thanks for reading -NLW
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