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- Fed Chair Signals Rate Cuts Coming Soon
Fed Chair Signals Rate Cuts Coming Soon
Plus Bitfinex Analysts Suggest Bitcoin Bottom Might Be In
The Breakdown First Five - Wednesday, July 10, 2024
Welcome back to The Breakdown First Five — the 5 most interesting and/or important stories in bitcoin, crypto, and markets to start your day.
![Fed Chair Signals Rate Cuts Coming Soon](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/ff0c7892-85d0-4276-8465-1407aac9494d/image.png?t=1720616117)
5. Congressional Showdown
Controversial SEC accounting guidance SAB121 will go to a congressional vote today with Democrats whipping against. Repeal of the guidance was vetoed by Biden in June, so pro-crypto lawmakers will need to find a two-thirds majority to overrule the White House. June’s vote wasn’t enough, but growing dissent from Democrats could lead to additional defections.
This vote will reveal your elected officials’ true stance on crypto.
The last vote was pre-determined given Biden’s veto threat - this time it is live.
Pro-innovation Republicans have made our stance clear—will Democrats have the courage to join us?
— Senator Bill Hagerty (@SenatorHagerty)
5:05 PM • Jul 9, 2024
4. Paxful Co-Founder Pleads Out
Athur Schaback has agreed to a plea deal that would see him serving five years in prison. The former CTO is facing charges that Paxful failed to establish an effective AML program. The allegations suggest that Paxful gave third parties documentation describing an AML system that did not exist. The DOJ also alleges that KYC exceptions were made based on trading volume and personal relationships.
If you steal my money, you are a thief.
If you watch someone else rob me and help him turn that stolen crypto into cash and protect him, you are a money launderer.
The latter is was Paxful did. Don’t defend them, they’re gross af.
— Tay 💖 (@tayvano_)
5:00 AM • Jul 10, 2024
3. Elliptic Uncovers $11B Scam Network
Security firm Elliptic has uncovered how Cambodian online marketplace Huione Guarantee has facilitated $11B in online scams across Southeast Asia. The platform primarily operates using Tether. Elliptic claims to have labeled several hundred addresses linked to schemes including selling personal data, money laundering and development of scam websites. Elliptic said crypto is not useful for scammers as the transaction data is now in the hands of law enforcement.
Crypto-tracing firm Elliptic found a Cambodian online market offering every product and service for the crypto scam industry: Money laundering, victim data, shackles for slave labor. It's done $11B in sales and is linked to the country's ruling family.
— Andy Greenberg (@agreenberg at the other places) (@a_greenberg)
7:00 AM • Jul 10, 2024
2. Bitfinex: Bottom Might Be In
Bitifinex Research thinks the Bitcoin bottom could be in. Bitcoin has traded up 6% since sweeping the lows at $55,000 over the weekend. Analysts looked at derivatives positioning and low volatility spreads that suggest that traders expect “bitcoin prices to stay in a range and stabilize." Long term Bitcoin holders could continue realizing profit as the price moves up, acting as a headwind.
“The Bitcoin bottom is in. Buy the fucking dip.”
— The ₿itcoin Therapist (@TheBTCTherapist)
9:37 PM • Jul 9, 2024
1. Powell Tight Lipped on Cuts
Fed Chair Jerome Powell refused to elaborate on the timeline for rate cuts, but his comments made it clear that cuts are on the way soon. He emphasized that the risk of inflation and the risk of labor market weakness are both front of mind. Recent jobs reports suggest unemployment is a much bigger concern than a wage-price spiral. Markets are pricing in the first cut in September.
There were some subtle but meaningful observations from Powell today
"The labor market appears to be fully back in balance."
"It's not a source of broad inflationary pressures for the economy now.”
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos)
7:49 PM • Jul 9, 2024