Bitcoin Faces Fall Seasonality Concerns After August Drop

The Breakdown First Five - Tuesday, September 3, 2024

Welcome back to The Breakdown First Five — the 5 most interesting and/or important stories in bitcoin, crypto, and markets to start your day.

5. Gambaryan Trial Continues

Detained Binance executive Tigran Gambaryan has appeared in Nigerian court to once again plead for his release on medical grounds. The former Federal agent made an agonizing appearance on film for the first time in months, struggling to walk using crutches after being denied a wheelchair. His wife Yuki said the “entire situation is inhumane and degrading, and I am fed up.” She called for consequences over the “disregard of law and human rights."

4. OKX Given OK in Singapore

OKX has been granted their full license to operate in Singapore. The exchange will now be allowed to operate without restrictions on volume and float, as well as offering cross-border transactions. Over a dozen crypto companies have been issued full licensing in Singapore as the Asian crypto hub rises in prominence. 

3. Miners Struggle Through August

August was the worst month in almost a year for Bitcoin miners. Revenues fell by almost 10% from July and are now down 57% since March. While the halving was a known factor, relentless hashrate rises and a slowdown in fees has put the squeeze on marginal miners. While revenues are down, 2024 has still been a fairly good year, set to exceed the past two. It’s just nothing compared to prior bull runs.

2. SEC Questioning FTX Distribution

The SEC has reserved their right to object to the FTX estate offering repayment in stablecoins. While the regulator made no statement on the legality of using stablecoins, the clear implication was that life would be made hard for the trustees if they go down that route. Many creditors from around the globe have noted that receiving payment in stablecoins will be cheaper and easier than taking their distribution via a cross-border bank transfer or an international check. 

1. Fall Seasonality

Labor day is over and fall is here, along with concerns about seasonality. This August was the worst month for Bitcoin since April, featuring an 8.6% drop in price. September is well known as the weakest month for Bitcoin on average, but given recent weakness, is there still more room to fall? If we can hold out a few more weeks without a major drawdown, Bitcoin will hit its seasonal high point of Uptober and into Q4. Is Bitcoin’s seasonality real, or just a small sample size?