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Bitcoin Breaks $72K, Gold at Record Highs
Plus Monster GBTC Outflows Continue Despite Inflows
The Breakdown First Five - Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Welcome back to The Breakdown First Five — the 5 most interesting and/or important stories in bitcoin, crypto, and markets to start your day.
5. Arthur’s Inferno
A new blog post from Arthur Hayes claims crypto markets could be in for a rough few weeks. A combination of tax season, Fed QT and a flush Treasury general account could make for tightening liquidity conditions over the next few weeks. According to Arthur, all roads still lead to money printing. Once we reach May, Arthur believes the Fed and Treasury will reach back into their ““bag of tricks” to ease liquidity conditions and signal another leg up for risk assets.
"Heatwave" is an essay on why I'm bearish despite the recent move higher in #crypto markets.
cryptohayes.substack.com/p/heatwave
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes)
2:30 AM • Apr 9, 2024
4. Deferred Option
The SEC has once again kicked the can on Bitcoin ETF options. The next deadline is coming up at the end of May. Industry figures have been frustrated at delays, with Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein calling the options “the natural next step” which would “contribute to a robust and healthy market.” Meanwhile, the SEC has approved a 2x short Microstrategy ETF.
Would like to remind everyone that we have options on 0DTE options ETFs (you're reading that correctly), but not spot bitcoin ETFs...
Seriously.
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci)
7:33 PM • Apr 8, 2024
3. Avi Eisenberg Trial Begins
The reckoning continues with the trial of Mango Markets hacker Avi Eisenberg commencing in New York. The trial will put DeFi under the microscope and settle the question of whether a “highly profitable trading strategy” should be illegal. Eisenberg is alleged to have manipulated collateral on the platform to make $116M but only used the smart contract as designed.
Yes, everyone is sick of crypto crook trials.
But, while the SBF case was pretty clear from the outset, the case against Avi is more nuanced.
Is code really law? Was it a "profitable trading strategy" or outright market manipulation?
coindesk.com/policy/2024/04…
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau)
8:07 AM • Apr 9, 2024
2. Monster GBTC Outflows
Although Genesis is done selling, $303M worth of GBTC was redeemed on Monday. These outflows overpowered a trifling $20M inflow for Blackrock. Bitwise batted above its weight with $40M worth of inflows, but the ETFs still saw $224M in net outflows. Last week was the first strong inflow in a while, with $1B added to the products, but Monday’s data suggests we’re not out of the woods yet.
Everyone gets excited over ETF inflows thinking they are new investors, this is incorrect.
There's a carry trade between CME futures and Spot ETFs.
Hedge funds temporarily buy the ETF to hedge their carry trade.
There's outflows when they unwind their positions as yields drop
— Willy Woo (@woonomic)
6:34 AM • Apr 9, 2024
1. Bitcoin Surges Back
#Bitcoin broke out from the bullish pennant, and is now retesting it!
If the retest is successful, we're looking at a target of $82,000.
Send it!
— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL)
7:34 AM • Apr 9, 2024